Mr. J.V. Presogna
Presogna Productions
All Products | Art | Back List | Bookstore | go2jvp Main | Music | Science | Sports | Writing
TRUE WORTH STUDIES
Back to True Worth Studies Main
College Football Championship Games
True Worth takes a look at the BCS Championship.
Back to College Football Main
2023 BCS Championship Playoff
2022 BCS Championship Playoff | 2021 BCS Championship Playoff
2020 BCS Championship Playoff | 2019 BCS Championship Playoff
2018 BCS Championship Playoff | 2017 BCS Championship Playoff
2016 BCS Championship Playoff | 2015 BCS Championship Playoff
BCS Championship Game 2014 | BCS Championship Game 2013
BCS Championship Game 2012 | BCS Championship Game 2011
BCS Championship Game 2010 | BCS Championship Game 2009
*******
|
BCS Championship Game 2014
True Worth says Florida State is Favorite (+10) Both teams are powerhouses on offense, but there are two points which should be reviewed. The Florida State defense is outstanding and one of the best in the NCAA. The 10.000 "Team Rushing" of Auburn, however, should be able to run against anyone, including the Seminoles. This means that Auburn should look to keep the ball away from Florida State and use the running game to its advantage. The game will be won or lost, however, in passing, where Florida State has a strong edge on defense, as well as being able to pass the ball well itself. Florida State should be able to move the ball and score on the Auburn defense which is above 200.00, and this is exactly why Auburn should be patient on offense in trying to play this game, using the clock and keeping Florida State away from the ball. Auburn has an advantage on special teams, but Florida State may negate this with its very high 2.635 rPD (relative points per drive). Florida State may not punt very many times at all in this game. |
Championship Game Results
Florida State 34, Auburn 31
|
Florida State (Actual Performance) 31.19 YP - 0.972 rPD - 41.67 S% 331.63 DU - 235.11 rDU - 96.52 pDU YIELD --> 29.26 YP 65.030 PASS - 4.711 RUSH |
Auburn (Actual Performance) 31.68 YP - 0.917 rPD - 38.46 S% 228.74 DU - 141.32 rDU - 87.43 pDU YIELD --> 20.18 YP 45.790 PASS - 6.770 RUSH |
| Auburn had a very good chance to win this game. They graded in preliminary matchup as 20.89 YP, but they actually hit 31.68 YP in the game. Florida State's ability to make the big play eventually won out as the rPD makes the case. The Seminole's offense may have been held down, but it was too strong all season to just quit. While Auburn had the right game plan to run the ball and control the tempo, Florida State had one too many chances. |
*******
|
BCS Championship Game 2013
True Worth says Alabama is Favorite (+5) The "grade against" calculation takes into account only the head-to-head matchup, and does not include the strength of schedule. Strength of schedule is calculated without wins and losses in True Worth Studies, using 6 different matchups. Most important to any coach is how the team's rushing, passing, and total offense match up to rush defense, pass defense, and total defense of the opposition field. Nevertheless, even with strength of schedule taken into account, Alabama will be a favorite in this game. Notre Dame, to win this game, must take away the big play. The Alabama 1.710 rPD rate is the "relative points per drive calculation," which means Alabama is a dangerous team. Containing Alabama is the key to Notre Dame's defensive strategy. On the other hand, Alabama must use its advantage in "Team Passing" to attack Notre Dame. Both defenses are capable of stopping the rush against the other team, so passing should be an imprtant point in this game. |
Championship Game Results
Alabama 42, Notre Dame 14
|
Alabama (Actual Performance) 133.31 YP - 2.520 rPD - 60.00 S% 152.28 DU - 26.78 rDU - 125.50 pDU YIELD --> 13.44 YP 92.675 PASS - 10.000 RUSH |
Notre Dame (Actual Performance) 11.60 YP - 0.346 rPD - 22.22 S% 596.68 DU - 344.11 rDU - 252.57 pDU YIELD --> 52.65 YP 25.350 PASS - 0.359 RUSH |
| Alabama played close to a perfect game on offense. The only blemish was the B-Grade defense, which turned out to be good enough. Notre Dame might have wanted to exploit the Alabama pass defense early, because that was their best chance to win. You can't take anything away from Alabama, however, because the offense was as close to being perfect as a team can be. |
*******
|
BCS Championship Game 2012
True Worth says Alabama is Favorite (+1) This game pits two of the best defenses in the country against powerhouse offenses, and it is a very close game indeed. Alabama is a 1 point favorite because of the strong running game, the exceptional defense, and the fact that it wins matchups in several categories. For LSU to win this game it must be able to go up against Alabama's pass defense. Alabama's biggest concern, obviously, is the LSU passing attack. The result of the grades calculation is not about points (13.55 v. 10.86), but this shows the strength of Alabama's overall offense, even against a tough defense like LSU. |
Championship Game Results
Alabama 21, LSU 0
|
Alabama (Actual Performance) 36.35 YP - 1.041 rPD - 54.55 S% -66.44 DU - -4.73 rDU - -61.71 pDU YIELD --> -5.86 YP 35.733 PASS - 4.286 RUSH |
LSU (Actual Performance) 0.00 YP - 0.000 rPD - 0.00 S% 414.87 DU - 288.57 rDU - 126.29 pDU YIELD --> 36.61 YP 3.702 PASS - 0.376 RUSH |
| Alabama played a complete game. The defensive results from the game are "negative," and this great triple negative defensive output went with a strong offensive showing. LSU can take some respect from giving up 5 field goals instead of touchdowns. Alabama's biggest concern was the passing attack, but that was shut down well. To top it off, the special teams also had an outstanding evening. |
*******
|
BCS Championship Game 2011
True Worth says Oregon is Favorite (+4) The above calculation is not about points or yards, but do not let the higher numbers fool you. At that high level of offense, the spread between the numbers is not the same as the same spread at a lower level. Oregon will be the favorite based mainly on the defense and the fact it can match Auburn on the ground attack. Auburn must run against Oregon to win, because that is the weaker portion of the Oregon defense, and if it can succeed against a very good A-Grade Oregon pass defense, then that will be a key aspect of the game. Oregon should attack Auburn's pass defense, but it should not waist its own running attack to spite itself. |
Championship Game Results
Auburn 22, Oregon 19
|
Auburn (Actual Performance) 24.03 YP - 0.556 rPD - 33.33 S% 257.57 DU - 35.16 rDU - 223.41 pDU YIELD --> 22.82 YP 48.803 PASS - 8.602 RUSH |
Oregon (Actual Performance) 19.23 YP - 0.471 rPD - 27.27 S% 361.49 DU - 242.06 rDU - 119.43 pDU YIELD --> 31.90 YP 40.445 PASS - 1.172 RUSH |
| Both teams came into the game as 10.000 Team Rushing, and as you can see Auburn shut down the Oregon running game completely. That was the key to Auburn's victory. Both teams did not pass as well as they did during the course of the regular season, but both teams passed adequately, above 40% effectiveness. So, there is no doubt that the Auburn rush defense of 35.16 rDU deserves all the credit in the world for stopping a powerful running game. Oregon's pass defense, however, did not stop the pass as they had during the season, 119.43 pDU in the game versus 39.88 pDU during the season. |
*******
|
BCS Championship Game 2010
True Worth says No Favorite (-) The above calculation is not about points or yards. The 2.22 YP difference is a dead heat in True Worth. You'd like to give Texas plus 1 point for the higher rPD while having the lower YP. But, the Team Rushing of Alabama is worth 7.341 units and enough to offset this. This is truly an even game, with the biggest risk at special teams, where neither team can cover well. It is the only weakness either team has. |
Championship Game Results
Alabama 37, Texas 21
|
Alabama (Actual Performance) 9.95 YP - 0.605 rPD - 31.25 S% 13.79 DU - 14.86 rDU - -1.07 pDU YIELD --> 1.22 YP 6.168 PASS - 5.493 RUSH |
Texas (Actual Performance) 4.72 YP - 0.291 rPD - 23.53 S% 129.80 DU - 212.80 rDU - -83.00 pDU YIELD --> 11.45 YP 22.719 PASS - 1.562 RUSH |
| Both teams played very good defense against powerful offenses, and the results show that both offenses were slowed. Alabama's win with only 9.95 YP generated for the game is a strong statement for the Texas defense, but Texas managed only 4.72 YP, making the Alabama defensive effort outstanding at 13.79 DU. In the end, Alabama's rushing was too much to overcome, and that was the key to victory. Both teams played pass defense so well that "negative" results were the product. While the score of 37 to 21 might indicate to the uninitiated that this was an offensive game, that would be an error. If both offenses were "cooking," the results would have made the defensive grades much worse. Alabama's 7.341 RUSH grade for the season was lowered in this game to 5.493 --- which is one more indication that Alabama may be the best rushing team in the nation, since not even a good defensive effort can really stop them completely. |
*******
|
BCS Championship Game 2009
True Worth says Florida is Favorite (+9)
Oklahoma had to run the ball to win, and it did not, falling below its seasonal grade. The Oklahoma offense did, however, make its YP (10.16 v. the 9.36 YIELD), and so the Oklahoma passing kept it in the ball game. The 34.078 Oklahoma passing was better than it might have been against the Florida pass defense. The Oklahoma defense, along with ineffective Oklahoma rushing, cost Oklahoma the game. Florida made their YP also (63.21 v. the 35.34 YIELD), and their rushing was almost the same as it was all season. Although their defense ballooned slightly in the Championship, it was still "A-Grade" at 106.04 DU. Finally, Florida had made the True Worth Profile on all counts, and Oklahoma had not, missing on "Defense." Therefore, Oklahoma could never be ranked ahead of Florida in this context --- although the Oklahoma offense was outstanding and actually better overall than Florida for the season, with a higher YP. This is one main reason a single number can never be used to rank Florida or Oklahoma. One's offense is better, and the other's defense is better. |
Back to True Worth Studies Main
All Products | Art | Back List | Bookstore | go2jvp Main | Music | Science | Sports | Writing
