Welcome to the True Worth Studies Capsule View of the 2021 NCAA BCS Playoff.
The charts below represent the four teams involved.
True Worth does not predict wins and losses.
It tells you what each team must do to win.
YP = Total Offense, rPD = Relative Points per Drive, S% = Scoring Percent
DU = Total Defense, rDU = Rush Defense, pDU = Pass Defense
Pass = Team Passing Performance, Rush = Team Rushing Performance
Yield = What the Defense is Willing to Give Up
Back to True Worth
This is the 7th year of the new NCAA BCS Playoff System. The playoff is set up
as follows: Alabama will meet Notre Dame and Ohio State will face Clemson.
ALABAMA v. NOTRE DAME: Alabama +4 Favorite
The strength calculations to start the game are 122.92 YP for Alabama and 51.82 YP for Notre Dame. This is not a prediction of score or yards. It is a comparison calculation of what these teams would get facing each other all year long. Both teams have defenses which are good enough to knock down the opponent, so defense will have a say in this game. The problem is the very powerful offense of Alabama. The 2.779 rPD for Alabama shows much more potential than the 1.512 rPD of Notre Dame. In other words, Notre Dame must strive to hold Alabama to lesser success, such as field goals instead of TDs. If they can do that, the Notre Dame offense can try to match Alabama drive for drive, but this will be difficult. The real advantage that Alabama has on offense is the passing game, and that is where they must attack Notre Dame. The running game is fairly close. In fact, Notre Dame should try to control the tempo of this game. That said, Alabama has a pretty good defense and an outstanding offense, and will be difficult to contain. Big plays may decide this game.
Alabama 31, Notre Dame 14 (on 1/1/2021)
CLEMSON v. OHIO STATE: Clemson +4 Favorite
The strength calculation to start the game is Clemson 56.21 YP and Ohio State 31.32 YP, so you can see how good the Clemson defense is, bringing Ohio State down and winning the strength. With the rush defense being about equal for both teams, Ohio State has a definite edge by topping out at 10.000, so this is indeed where Ohio State has to dwell. There is no question, however, that Clemson has the advantage both ways on passing, and the Clemson pass defense is really superior. An additional advantage for Clemson is on special teams, where Ohio State is indeed vulnerable with very poor punt coverage. Given that the rPD for offense is almost the same, both teams are capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. Yet, this advantage does lend itself better to the passing game, where Clemson has a clear advantage. For Ohio State to win, they must control the tempo of the game and control the ground game. A patient game which keeps the ball is more beneficial. Otherwise, the game is definitely a chance for Clemson to pass itself to victory.
Ohio State 49, Clemson 28 (on 1/1/2021)
ALABAMA v. OHIO STATE: Alabama +4 Favorite
The strength calculation to start is Alabama 110.80 YP and Ohio State 62.27 YP, so both defenses are similar in how they affect the other team, and the Yield for each team is almost the same, 12.52 YP for Alabama and 12.20 YP for Ohio State. The real difference in the defenses is in the splits, where Ohio State is weaker against the pass. Alabama's defense is more balanced, and this is a bit of an advantage. As in the previous game, Ohio State's 10.000 Team Rushing will be a factor, and Alabama's rush defense is not quite as good as Clemson's was. Yet, the Alabama passing attack and their rPD are the best of the group of finalists, and this is Alabama's main strength. Alabama's Team Rushing is also better than Clemson's, so they should run better than Clemson did, if all things are normal. Additionally, although not shown in the charts displayed, the Special Teams calculations give Alabama an advantage. Not often a factor, Special Teams might play a factor in this game. If all things set up as is shown, Ohio State's main weakness is the pass defense, and Alabama's main strength is the passing attack. Even if Ohio State can stop Alabama on the ground, it will have a lot of trouble stopping them through the air. Ohio State's best strategy is to try to run the ball and keep the score down, trying to control the tempo and the clock. The dangerous passing attack of Alabama should be kept at bay if at all possible. Otherwise, Alabama, especially if it finds room to run, will take advantage of the Ohio State pass defense.
Alabama 52, Ohio State 24 (on 1/11/2021)
Alabama is the new NCAA Football Champion