Welcome to the True Worth Studies Capsule View of the 2019 NCAA BCS Playoff.
The charts below represent the four teams involved.
True Worth does not predict wins and losses.
It tells you what each team must do to win.
YP = Total Offense, rPD = Relative Points per Drive, S% = Scoring Percent
DU = Total Defense, rDU = Rush Defense, pDU = Pass Defense
Pass = Team Passing Performance, Rush = Team Rushing Performance
Yield = What the Defense is Willing to Give Up
Back to True Worth
This is the 5th year of the new NCAA BCS Playoff System. The playoff is set up
as follows: Oklahoma will meet Alabama and Notre Dame will face Clemson.
ALABAMA v. OKLAHOMA: Alabama +2 Favorite
The calculation for this game, each team's offense against the other's defense, is 191.12 YP for Alabama and 124.91 YP for Oklahoma, at the start of the game. Both offenses come in as powerhouse units, but Oklahoma gives up much more than Alabama, so Alabama shows stronger at the start of the game. Neither team defends against the rush very well, and this might be a problem for Alabama, since Oklahoma comes in as a top rated 10.000 Team Rushing. However, the rush defense of Oklahoma is poor in comparison, so Alabama should be able to run also. Both teams have very high rPD rates which is a sign of scoring prowess, but this game, where both teams should be able to run, will hinge on passing, since Alabama's pass defense is superior. Special teams for both teams are both very good, so there are quite a few things which will balance out. In that respect, Oklahoma should keep the ball away from Alabama and run a majority of the time. Alabama, although they should be able to run, should definitely use their advantage in passing, since Oklahoma is a poor 162.78 pDU on pass defense. Alabama's best game plan would be to attack early and gain a lead, forcing Oklahoma to pass against a superior pass defense. Otherwise, Oklahoma can use a powerful running game to move the ball down the field and use up time on the clock.
Alabama 45, Oklahoma 34 (on 12/29/2018)
CLEMSON v. NOTRE DAME: Clemson +4 Favorite
The calculation to start this game is 76.55 YP for Clemson and 20.85 YP for Notre Dame. Clemson has the best defense of the playoffs and it shows up here, but there is also the factor of being 10.000 Team Rushing. Clemson should win the running game both ways, offense and defense, and this will be a problem for Notre Dame. In the passing game, the Irish do have A-Grade pass defense, so they can compete there legitimately, and their 1.364 rPD is quite good. This is the main focus for Notre Dame, the passing game, since they can both attack and defend well in this area. To face Clemson on the ground is not a good bargain. Clemson also has an A-Grade pass defense, however, and this makes it a difficult matchup for Notre Dame. In order for the Irish to win, they will have to find some way to contain Clemson. Shutting Clemson down does not seem possible, but it may be possible to slow them down and contain them, and they cannot give up any big plays to Clemson either. If Clemson shows up and plays well, they should be able to run well, and the passing will be a bonus.
Clemson 30, Notre Dame 3 (on 12/29/2018)
ALABAMA v. CLEMSON: Clemson +1 Favorite
The calculation for this championship game is 54.36 YP for Clemson and 39.89 YP for Alabama. This is because of Clemson's superior defense. Alabama has traditionally had better defense than what it posted this year, but the team's defense is not bad at all this year. It is the fact that Clemson's defense is that good that makes the calculation favor Clemson. It is the pass defense where Alabama plays equal with Clemson, and this has to be one way Alabama has the chance to win. The running game should go to Clemson both ways, offense and defense. The special teams favor Alabama by a pretty good margin, so this again will have to be where Alabama has its chance. Therefore, since Clemson takes the calculation and the running game both ways, while they split the passing game, Alabama receives a point for the very high 2.246 rPD and for special teams. It shapes up as a very close game, if Alabama can somehow slow down the Clemson ground game. Since both QBs should find it difficult to throw if both pass defenses show up, the running game may be the factor that decides how his game will go. If Alabama fails to live up to its potential on the pass defense, since the teams are equal there, Clemson should prevail.
Clemson 44, Alabama 16 (on 1/7/2019)
Clemson is the new NCAA Football Champion