Welcome to the True Worth Studies Capsule View of the 2020 NCAA BCS Playoff.
The charts below represent the four teams involved.
True Worth does not predict wins and losses.
It tells you what each team must do to win.
YP = Total Offense, rPD = Relative Points per Drive, S% = Scoring Percent
DU = Total Defense, rDU = Rush Defense, pDU = Pass Defense
Pass = Team Passing Performance, Rush = Team Rushing Performance
Yield = What the Defense is Willing to Give Up
Back to True Worth
This is the 6th year of the new NCAA BCS Playoff System. The playoff is set up
as follows: Oklahoma will meet LSU and Ohio State will face Clemson.
LSU v. OKLAHOMA: LSU +3 Favorite
The calculation for this game, each team's offense against the other's defense, is 114.91 YP for Oklahoma and 180.26 YP for LSU, at the start of the game. If these teams had to play each other every game, that is what the YP strength would be. So, LSU looks better on offense to start the game. Oklahoma may have a maximum of 10.000 on Team Rushing, but their rush defense is not good, which allows LSU to be able to capitalize on that. Clearly, Oklahoma should play a patient game and keep the ball away from LSU to protect that rush defense which is vulnerable. LSU also has an edge on special teams, which could play a factor in the outcome. Nevertheless, LSU cannot ignore the 2.328 rPD for Oklahoma, which means they are equal in scoring strength. The rPD that high, like LSU's rPD, means they can score from anywhere. LSU, knowing it should be able to run against a poor Oklahoma rush defense, should emphasize the passing game, because they should try to gain the lead early and sit on it. LSU's pass defense is fairly good, so defending against a team playing catch-up would suit them fine.
LSU 63, Oklahoma 28 (on 12/28/2019)
OHIO STATE v. CLEMSON: Ohio State +2 Favorite
The calculation to start this game is 23.97 YP for Clemson and 31.39 YP for Ohio State. As you can see, this game features two very good defenses which can do some damage to the opposing offense. Unlike the other game, this game features not only great offense, but sterling defense, and that is the key to this game. The team that can survive that defense should win. Both teams have the maximum on Team Rushing, so both teams indeed should run the ball. Secondly, since both teams have a superior pass defense, both rating negative, the passing game becomes critical to success. This game squares up fairly equal, and the only significant advantage for Ohio State is the punt coverage, which should help gain them field position throughout the game. Ohio State will be the favorite, but this sets up to be a game which will be very close. If Ohio State can pass the ball well, this should be the deciding factor, so Clemson has to make sure the pass defense shows up.
Clemson 29, Ohio State 23 (on 12/28/2019)
LSU v. CLEMSON: Clemson +2 Favorite
The calculation for this championship game is 87.87 YP for Clemson and 33.17 for LSU. As was stated above, this is not a score or a prediction, but a matchup of strength to open the game. The Clemson defense is superior and would immediately have an effect upon LSU's dynamic offense. LSU will be facing what has to be its toughest pass defense of the year in Clemson. It is difficult to gain a negative grade on pass defense, but Clemson has done exactly that. There is no question that LSU is top of the line offense at 2.446 rPD, better than Clemson by a good amount, but most of it is over the top in passing. On the other side of the ball, LSU really does have a good pass defense itself. Anything below 70.00 is A-Grade in pass defense, and LSU is right there. The Team Rushing, however, may be the deciding factor, whereas Clemson comes in at maximum 10.000. While Clemson takes the initial calculation and LSU takes the rPD, making them even, Clemson will gain advantage because of its defense, primarily in pass defense. This makes it critical that LSU run the ball to allow it some flexibility in passing. Clemson, meanwhile, cannot waste its own Team Rushing which is maximum. That said, the team that runs the ball should have the advantage.
LSU 42, Clemson 25 (on 1/13/2020)
LSU is the new NCAA Football Champion