Welcome to the True Worth Studies Capsule View of the 2017 NCAA BCS Playoff.
The charts below represent the four teams involved.
True Worth does not predict wins and losses.
It tells you what each team must do to win.
YP = Total Offense, rPD = Relative Points per Drive, S% = Scoring Percent
DU = Total Defense, rDU = Rush Defense, pDU = Pass Defense
Pass = Team Passing Performance, Rush = Team Rushing Performance
Yield = What the Defense is Willing to Give Up
Back to True Worth
This is the third year of the new NCAA BCS Playoff System. The playoff is set up
as follows: Alabama will meet Washington and Clemson will face Ohio State.
ALABAMA v. WASHINGTON: Alabama +5 Favorite
The calculation for this game, each team's offense against the other's defense, is Alabama 40.92 YP and Washington 8.21 YP. This marks the opening strength of the matchup, and Alabama comes out well here. Although both pass defenses are excellent, Alabama has a keen edge on rush defense, as well as being able to run the ball better on offense. Alabama should win the running game both ways, making it the favorite. If Washington is to win this game, they must find some way to run the ball, because the Alabama pass defense will be difficult to overcome. The one real advantage that Washington has is in rPD, but this should be significantly lower playing Alabama.
Alabama 24, Washington 7 (on 12/31/2016)
CLEMSON v. OHIO STATE: Ohio State +5 Favorite
The calculation for this game is 50.27 YP for Ohio State and 27.37 YP for Clemson. As was the case in the other game, both teams possess superior pass defenses, but Ohio State has the edge in rush defense. Ohio State should also win the running game both ways. With Clemson having the lowest rushing rate of the four teams, it will be difficult to run against Ohio State, but Clemson must run to win. Ohio State would do well to establish the run early when on offense and play a patient game.
Clemson 31, Ohio State 0 (on 12/31/2016)
ALABAMA v. CLEMSON: Alabama +2 Favorite
The calculation for this game, a rematch of last year's NCAA Championship, shows Alabama with 42.03 YP and Clemson with 6.27 YP, based on the strength of that matchup. The Alabama defense is extremely good and this shows up in the matchup. Clemson did what it had to do against Ohio State, which is prevent them from controlling the running game, and the job will be just as difficult here against Alabama. Alabama's Team Rushing is almost the same as Ohio State's Team Rushing, so it will have to be 2 games in a row for Clemson to stop that part of the attack. That is how Clemson can win, however, which is indeed where the game actually will be won. As was the case in the prior matchups, both Alabama and Clemson have superior pass defenses, so both teams should suffer at least a little. For Alabama, the critical point is the Yield, which is what the defense is willing to give up. A lot of the numbers look alike across the board, including rPD, Team Passing, Scoring Percent, and Pass Defense. The game is closer than the strength matchup looks, but it appears to center on the ability of each team to stop the other, which is what they both did in the prior games.
Clemson 35, Alabama 31(on 1/9/2017)
Clemson is the new NCAA Football Champion