Welcome to the True Worth Studies Capsule View of the 2018 NCAA BCS Playoff.
The charts below represent the four teams involved.
True Worth does not predict wins and losses.
It tells you what each team must do to win.
YP = Total Offense, rPD = Relative Points per Drive, S% = Scoring Percent
DU = Total Defense, rDU = Rush Defense, pDU = Pass Defense
Pass = Team Passing Performance, Rush = Team Rushing Performance
Yield = What the Defense is Willing to Give Up
Back to True Worth
This is the 4th year of the new NCAA BCS Playoff System. The playoff is set up
as follows: Clemson will meet Alabama and Oklahoma will face Georgia.
CLEMSON v. ALABAMA: Alabama +4 Favorite
The calculation for this game, each team's offense against the other's defense, is Clemson 24.97 YP and Alabama 52.20 YP. Both teams have superior defenses which bring down what would be their YP score at the opening of the game. For Alabama, the rPD and Team Passing should net them the advantage both ways through the air. On Team Rushing, while Alabama does have a great 10.000 score, the Clemson defense should be able to handle that. Likewise, Alabama's Rush Defense should be able to handle Clemson's running game, so the teams should split the running game evenly. There is an additional aspect of this game to mention, and that is the special teams coverage, where Alabama has a great score of 0.030 and Clemson has a poor 0.310. This could become a factor on special teams play.
Alabama 24, Clemson 6 (on 1/1/2018)
OKLAHOMA v. GEORGIA: No Favorite. Toss-Up.
The calculation for this game is 92.75 YP for Oklahoma and 93.88 YP for Georgia. This game is almost a dead heat, and Georgia wins the calculation by a hair because the Oklahoma defense gives up much more than it takes. Oklahoma should win the passing game while Georgia should win the running game, so the game continues to remain close at this point. Once again, we can see a discrepancy on special teams coverage, where Georgia has the much better coverage team, 0.124 to 0.398, but the 2.228 rPD of Oklahoma is a strong factor against making Georgie a favorite. This is a toss up.
Georgia 54, Oklahoma 48 (2 OT) (on 1/1/2018)
ALABAMA v. CLEMSON: Alabama +3 Favorite
The calculation for this game favors Alabama 65.77 YP against Georgia 36.85 YP. This is a calculation of strength, not a predicted score or anything like that. Both teams come into the game with 10.000 Team Rushing, and they will likely split at that point, even if Alabama's Rush Defense is better. The real advantage for Alabama will be in Team Passing, where they have both passing offense and defense covered. A point for the calculation, a point for the rPD, and a point for the passing game would make Alabama the favorite, and that is where the game should be decided, since both teams can run the ball as well as anyone. Georgia should look to contain Alabama's passing, while Alabama can keep them very honest by running the ball. Nevertheless, Alabama should exploit the advantage they have in the air.
Alabama 26, Georgia 23 (1 OT) (on 1/8/2018)
Alabama is the new NCAA Football Champion