Welcome to the True Worth Studies Capsule View of the 2016 NCAA BCS Playoff.
The charts below represent the four teams involved.
True Worth does not predict wins and losses.
It tells you what each team must do to win.
YP = Total Offense, rPD = Relative Points per Drive, S% = Scoring Percent
DU = Total Defense, rDU = Rush Defense, pDU = Pass Defense
Pass = Team Passing Performance, Rush = Team Rushing Performance
Yield = What the Defense is Willing to Give Up
Back to True Worth
This is the second year of the new NCAA BCS Playoff System. The playoff is set up
as follows: Oklahoma will meet Clemson and Michigan State will face Alabama.
OKLAHOMA at CLEMSON: Oklahoma +2 Favorite
The calculation for this game, each offense against the other's defense, is a virtual dead heat (46.02 YP for Oklahoma and 43.74 YP for Clemson). A calculation this close needs to look at the matchups for a closer look. Both teams are similar in the setup, meaning both are powerhouse rushing teams, while both do not defend against the rush as well as most other teams. In passing, once again they are similar, with both teams having top pass defenses, as well as anyone could want, while they produce well on offense as well. The only significant edge in the game is the rPD for Oklahoma, which would make them the slightest of favorites. Since both teams can run extremely well against the other, the pass defense would be the critical point in the game. Each team must establish the passing game in order for it to win.
Clemson 37 Oklahoma 17 (on 12/31/2015)
MICHIGAN STATE at ALABAMA: Alabama +5 Favorite
The calculation for this game has Alabama on top (29.57 YP to 12.00 YP). Don't let this mislead you, however, because each team has strengths to pursue. YP is not points or a point spread. It is a calculation of strength, how the game sets up. In order for Michigan State to win this game, it must address its advantage in passing and rPD. The point is that Alabama's defense is extremely good against both the rush and the pass. Alabama, however, does not come in with overpowering force. Michigan State's defense is well-balanced, about an A- Grade for each, which means Alabama will not have it as easy as it might look. Nevertheless, the advantage in the ground game goes to Alabama both ways, and this is what makes Alabama a favorite in this game. Alabama must run to win. For Michigan State to win, they will need to use their advantage through the air on offense, and find a way to run to keep Alabama honest.
Alabama 38 Michigan State 0 (on 12/31/2015)
ALABAMA at CLEMSON: Alabama +2 Favorite
The calculation for this game would seem to indicate Alabama in control (23.36 YP to 13.92 YP). As was the case in Alabama's last game, do not let this mislead you. It is only a setup of strength of the matchup. Both teams possess exceptional pass defenses, and both quarterbacks will have to assert themselves. The opening for Alabama is in the Clemson rush defense, which is a bit soft, compared to Alabama's rush defense, which is top flight. While the pass defense of Clemson makes this game much closer than the original calculation of matchup strength, Alabama is still favored to win based on the ground game. For Clemson to win this game, it must find a way to stop Alabama on the ground, as well as trying to gain some yardage on the ground themselves. Otherwise, Alabama will indeed control the tempo of the game and the outcome.
Alabama 45 Clemson 40 (on 1/11/2016)
Alabama is the new NCAA Football Champion