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TRUE WORTH STUDIES

True Worth Studies
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College Football Championship Games
True Worth takes a look at the BCS Championship.
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2017 BCS Championship Playoff
2016 BCS Championship Playoff | 2015 BCS Championship Playoff
BCS Championship Game 2014 | BCS Championship Game 2013
BCS Championship Game 2012 | BCS Championship Game 2011
BCS Championship Game 2010 | BCS Championship Game 2009



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BCS Championship Game 2014
Auburn Tigers v. Florida State Seminoles
January 6, 2014

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Preliminary Discussion

Auburn: 14 Games (13-1)
63.91 YP - 1.537 rPD - 49.37 S%
255.82 DU - 151.21 rDU - 104.61 pDU
57.043 PASS - 10.000 RUSH

Against Florida State, Auburn grades 20.89 YP
Preliminary Discussion

Florida State: 14 Games (14-0)
116.98 YP - 2.635 rPD - 64.52 S%
55.57 DU - 54.17 rDU - 1.39 pDU
48.295 PASS - 7.302 RUSH

Against Auburn, Florida State grades 176.03 YP

True Worth says Florida State is Favorite (+10)
(Not a predicted winner, but a favorite)



Both teams are powerhouses on offense, but there are two points which should be reviewed. The Florida State defense is outstanding and one of the best in the NCAA. The 10.000 "Team Rushing" of Auburn, however, should be able to run against anyone, including the Seminoles. This means that Auburn should look to keep the ball away from Florida State and use the running game to its advantage. The game will be won or lost, however, in passing, where Florida State has a strong edge on defense, as well as being able to pass the ball well itself. Florida State should be able to move the ball and score on the Auburn defense which is above 200.00, and this is exactly why Auburn should be patient on offense in trying to play this game, using the clock and keeping Florida State away from the ball. Auburn has an advantage on special teams, but Florida State may negate this with its very high 2.635 rPD (relative points per drive). Florida State may not punt very many times at all in this game.


Championship Game Results
Florida State 34, Auburn 31


Florida State (Actual Performance)
31.19 YP - 0.972 rPD - 41.67 S%
331.63 DU - 235.11 rDU - 96.52 pDU
YIELD --> 29.26 YP
65.030 PASS - 4.711 RUSH
Auburn (Actual Performance)
31.68 YP - 0.917 rPD - 38.46 S%
228.74 DU - 141.32 rDU - 87.43 pDU
YIELD --> 20.18 YP
45.790 PASS - 6.770 RUSH


Auburn had a very good chance to win this game. They graded in preliminary matchup as 20.89 YP, but they actually hit 31.68 YP in the game. Florida State's ability to make the big play eventually won out as the rPD makes the case. The Seminole's offense may have been held down, but it was too strong all season to just quit. While Auburn had the right game plan to run the ball and control the tempo, Florida State had one too many chances.


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BCS Championship Game 2013
Notre Dame Fighting Irish v. Alabama Crimson Tide
January 7, 2013

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Preliminary Discussion

Notre Dame: 12 Games (12-0)
41.53 YP - 1.076 rPD - 45.04 S%
97.80 DU - 50.40 rDU - 47.40 pDU
44.427 PASS - 6.736 RUSH

Against Alabama, Notre Dame grades 13.61 YP
Preliminary Discussion

Alabama: 13 Games (12-1)
66.41 YP - 1.710 rPD - 52.38 S%
55.70 DU - 34.37 rDU - 21.33 pDU
71.541 PASS - 8.329 RUSH

Against Notre Dame, Alabama grades 38.24 YP

True Worth says Alabama is Favorite (+5)
(Not a predicted winner, but a favorite)



The "grade against" calculation takes into account only the head-to-head matchup, and does not include the strength of schedule. Strength of schedule is calculated without wins and losses in True Worth Studies, using 6 different matchups. Most important to any coach is how the team's rushing, passing, and total offense match up to rush defense, pass defense, and total defense of the opposition field. Nevertheless, even with strength of schedule taken into account, Alabama will be a favorite in this game. Notre Dame, to win this game, must take away the big play. The Alabama 1.710 rPD rate is the "relative points per drive calculation," which means Alabama is a dangerous team. Containing Alabama is the key to Notre Dame's defensive strategy. On the other hand, Alabama must use its advantage in "Team Passing" to attack Notre Dame. Both defenses are capable of stopping the rush against the other team, so passing should be an imprtant point in this game.


Championship Game Results
Alabama 42, Notre Dame 14


Alabama (Actual Performance)
133.31 YP - 2.520 rPD - 60.00 S%
152.28 DU - 26.78 rDU - 125.50 pDU
YIELD --> 13.44 YP
92.675 PASS - 10.000 RUSH
Notre Dame (Actual Performance)
11.60 YP - 0.346 rPD - 22.22 S%
596.68 DU - 344.11 rDU - 252.57 pDU
YIELD --> 52.65 YP
25.350 PASS - 0.359 RUSH


Alabama played close to a perfect game on offense. The only blemish was the B-Grade defense, which turned out to be good enough. Notre Dame might have wanted to exploit the Alabama pass defense early, because that was their best chance to win. You can't take anything away from Alabama, however, because the offense was as close to being perfect as a team can be.


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BCS Championship Game 2012
Alabama Crimson Tide v. LSU Tigers
January 9, 2012

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Preliminary Discussion

Alabama: 12 Games (11-1)
63.44 YP - 1.586 rPD - 51.54 S%
32.34 DU - 28.19 rDU - 4.15 pDU
51.790 PASS - 8.174 RUSH

Against LSU, Alabama grades
13.55 YP
Preliminary Discussion

LSU: 13 Games (13-0)
57.10 YP - 1.638 rPD - 51.43 S%
36.31 DU - 29.91 rDU - 6.40 pDU
61.560 PASS - 7.193 RUSH

Against Alabama, LSU grades
10.86 YP

True Worth says Alabama is Favorite (+1)
(Not a predicted winner, but a favorite)



This game pits two of the best defenses in the country against powerhouse offenses, and it is a very close game indeed. Alabama is a 1 point favorite because of the strong running game, the exceptional defense, and the fact that it wins matchups in several categories. For LSU to win this game it must be able to go up against Alabama's pass defense. Alabama's biggest concern, obviously, is the LSU passing attack. The result of the grades calculation is not about points (13.55 v. 10.86), but this shows the strength of Alabama's overall offense, even against a tough defense like LSU.


Championship Game Results
Alabama 21, LSU 0


Alabama (Actual Performance)
36.35 YP - 1.041 rPD - 54.55 S%
-66.44 DU - -4.73 rDU - -61.71 pDU
YIELD --> -5.86 YP
35.733 PASS - 4.286 RUSH
LSU (Actual Performance)
0.00 YP - 0.000 rPD - 0.00 S%
414.87 DU - 288.57 rDU - 126.29 pDU
YIELD --> 36.61 YP
3.702 PASS - 0.376 RUSH


Alabama played a complete game. The defensive results from the game are "negative," and this great triple negative defensive output went with a strong offensive showing. LSU can take some respect from giving up 5 field goals instead of touchdowns. Alabama's biggest concern was the passing attack, but that was shut down well. To top it off, the special teams also had an outstanding evening.


*******

BCS Championship Game 2011
Auburn Tigers v. Oregon Ducks
January 10, 2011

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Preliminary Discussion

Auburn: 13 games (13-0)
98.90 YP - 2.201 rPD - 59.03 S%
200.44 DU - 82.89 rDU - 117.55 pDU
69.484 PASS - 10.000 RUSH

Against Oregon, Auburn grades
63.30 YP
Preliminary Discussion

Oregon: 12 games (12-0)
75.37 YP - 1.832 rPD - 52.87 S%
108.80 DU - 68.93 rDU - 39.88 pDU
70.984 PASS - 10.000 RUSH

Against Auburn, Oregon grades
88.87 YP

True Worth says Oregon is Favorite (+4)
(Not a predicted winner, but a favorite)



The above calculation is not about points or yards, but do not let the higher numbers fool you. At that high level of offense, the spread between the numbers is not the same as the same spread at a lower level. Oregon will be the favorite based mainly on the defense and the fact it can match Auburn on the ground attack. Auburn must run against Oregon to win, because that is the weaker portion of the Oregon defense, and if it can succeed against a very good A-Grade Oregon pass defense, then that will be a key aspect of the game. Oregon should attack Auburn's pass defense, but it should not waist its own running attack to spite itself.

Championship Game Results
Auburn 22, Oregon 19


Auburn (Actual Performance)
24.03 YP - 0.556 rPD - 33.33 S%
257.57 DU - 35.16 rDU - 223.41 pDU
YIELD --> 22.82 YP
48.803 PASS - 8.602 RUSH
Oregon (Actual Performance)
19.23 YP - 0.471 rPD - 27.27 S%
361.49 DU - 242.06 rDU - 119.43 pDU
YIELD --> 31.90 YP
40.445 PASS - 1.172 RUSH


Both teams came into the game as 10.000 Team Rushing, and as you can see Auburn shut down the Oregon running game completely. That was the key to Auburn's victory. Both teams did not pass as well as they did during the course of the regular season, but both teams passed adequately, above 40% effectiveness. So, there is no doubt that the Auburn rush defense of 35.16 rDU deserves all the credit in the world for stopping a powerful running game. Oregon's pass defense, however, did not stop the pass as they had during the season, 119.43 pDU in the game versus 39.88 pDU during the season.


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BCS Championship Game 2010
Alabama Crimson Tide v. Texas Longhorns
January 7, 2010

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Preliminary Discussion

Alabama: 13 games (13-0)
50.49 YP - 1.361 rPD - 50.34 S%
69.45 DU - 41.02 rDU - 28.43 pDU
57.117 PASS - 7.341 RUSH

Against Texas, Alabama grades
16.95 YP
Preliminary Discussion

Texas: 13 games (13-0)
46.92 YP - 1.377 rPD - 46.67 S%
57.07 DU - 16.06 rDU - 41.00 pDU
46.121 PASS - 4.166 RUSH

Against Alabama, Texas grades
19.17 YP

True Worth says No Favorite (-)
(No predicted winner)



The above calculation is not about points or yards. The 2.22 YP difference is a dead heat in True Worth. You'd like to give Texas plus 1 point for the higher rPD while having the lower YP. But, the Team Rushing of Alabama is worth 7.341 units and enough to offset this. This is truly an even game, with the biggest risk at special teams, where neither team can cover well. It is the only weakness either team has.

Championship Game Results
Alabama 37, Texas 21


Alabama (Actual Performance)
9.95 YP - 0.605 rPD - 31.25 S%
13.79 DU - 14.86 rDU - -1.07 pDU
YIELD --> 1.22 YP
6.168 PASS - 5.493 RUSH
Texas (Actual Performance)
4.72 YP - 0.291 rPD - 23.53 S%
129.80 DU - 212.80 rDU - -83.00 pDU
YIELD --> 11.45 YP
22.719 PASS - 1.562 RUSH


Both teams played very good defense against powerful offenses, and the results show that both offenses were slowed. Alabama's win with only 9.95 YP generated for the game is a strong statement for the Texas defense, but Texas managed only 4.72 YP, making the Alabama defensive effort outstanding at 13.79 DU. In the end, Alabama's rushing was too much to overcome, and that was the key to victory. Both teams played pass defense so well that "negative" results were the product. While the score of 37 to 21 might indicate to the uninitiated that this was an offensive game, that would be an error. If both offenses were "cooking," the results would have made the defensive grades much worse. Alabama's 7.341 RUSH grade for the season was lowered in this game to 5.493 --- which is one more indication that Alabama may be the best rushing team in the nation, since not even a good defensive effort can really stop them completely.


*******

BCS Championship Game 2009
Florida Gators v. Oklahoma Sooners
January 8, 2009

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Preliminary Discussion

Florida: 13 games (12-1)
90.52 YP - 2.235 rPD - 58.45 S%
80.72 DU - 64.72 rDU - 16.72 pDU
81.680 PASS - 9.133 RUSH

Against Oklahoma, Florida grades 74.85 YP
Preliminary Discussion

Oklahoma: 13 games (12-1)
102.96 YP - 2.325 rPD - 55.75 S%
140.57 DU - 69.97 rDU - 70.60 pDU
70.608 PASS - 6.538 RUSH

Against Florida, Oklahoma grades 48.89 YP

True Worth says Florida is Favorite (+9)
(Not a predicted winner, but a favorite)

Championship Game Results
Florida 24, Oklahoma 14


Florida (Actual Performance)
63.21 YP - 1.185 rPD - 44.44 S%
106.04 DU - 78.96 rDU - 27.08 pDU
YIELD --> 9.36 YP
52.136 PASS - 9.394 RUSH
Oklahoma (Actual Performance)
10.16 YP - 0.280 rPD - 20.00 S%
400.49 DU - 297.82 rDU - 102.67 pDU
YIELD --> 35.34 YP
34.078 PASS - 2.632 RUSH


Oklahoma had to run the ball to win, and it did not, falling below its seasonal grade. The Oklahoma offense did, however, make its YP (10.16 v. the 9.36 YIELD), and so the Oklahoma passing kept it in the ball game. The 34.078 Oklahoma passing was better than it might have been against the Florida pass defense. The Oklahoma defense, along with ineffective Oklahoma rushing, cost Oklahoma the game.

Florida made their YP also (63.21 v. the 35.34 YIELD), and their rushing was almost the same as it was all season. Although their defense ballooned slightly in the Championship, it was still "A-Grade" at 106.04 DU.

Finally, Florida had made the True Worth Profile on all counts, and Oklahoma had not, missing on "Defense." Therefore, Oklahoma could never be ranked ahead of Florida in this context --- although the Oklahoma offense was outstanding and actually better overall than Florida for the season, with a higher YP. This is one main reason a single number can never be used to rank Florida or Oklahoma. One's offense is better, and the other's defense is better.


True Worth Studies
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